Process

Training

1. Overview











2. The
Process






3. Error
Measures




4. Bayesian
Probability


5. Statistical
Significance



6. Single-Variable
Forecasting
  • Customer power
  • Complexity
  • The wall of shame
  • Handicapping
  • Strategic and tactical
  • Learning curve
  • Forecasting attitude
  • Just one forecast, thank you
  • Demand sensing: sales results, marketing and sales programs. multiple data streams, external dynamics
  • Demand shaping
  • Demand responding
  • The alternatives
  • The best error measure
  • Naive forecast error
  • MASE calculation
  • Rain forecast: don't be a fish
  • Cancer testing
  • Fisherian view
  • Spurious findings
  • Data mining
  • Definition
  • Simple linear extensions
  • Inclusion/exclusion bias
  • Seasonality
  • Other non-seasonal methods
  • Winter's smoothing
  • ARIMA
  • Why divide the data?
  • Winter's smoothing example: plot, clean, divide, forecast, measure error

7. Quantifying
Program Impact








8. Integrated
Forecast




9. Multi-Variable
Forecasting










10. Software
Options

11. Which
Method and
Package?




12. What
To Avoid
  • Statistical pitfalls
  • Experimental limitations
  • Time series experiment
  • Smoothing with a partial time series
  • Smoothing with a full time series
  • Multiple time series
  • Program tracking
  • Repeat programs
  • Non-repeat programs
  • New programs
  • Notes of caution
  • Misleading language
  • The variables: industry and economy, seasonality, dummy variables, internal marketing measures
  • The methods: multiple regression, step-wise regression, ARIMA, partial least squares, unobserved components, bayesian models
  • Top four options
  • Tests: jewelry industry, treasury management, electric utility, national home sales
  • Forecast method round-up
  • Software package round-up
  • The illusion of certainty
  • Highly complex formulas
  • Highly complex variables
  • Insularity
  • Concavity
  • High volatility

Coaching

Typical training fades a week or two after the program. Trainees return to their old ways, perhaps with a few enhancements. The Sales Forecast Solutions approach is different. We use a combination of training and coaching to ensure that your investment pays off. Each of your design teams is assigned to a highly experienced coach who has at least 15 years of sales and marketing consulting experience. Teams have weekly assignments, which are reviewed by their Sales Forecast Solutions coach. By the end of the process, not only will you have great forecasts, your entire team will be highly skilled. This way your investment provides dividends for years to come.