Goals

Increase sales through fewer stock outs.
Decrease inventory costs through optimal inventory levels.

In This Course You Learn To:

Use ARIMA, a mandatory forecasting method for every intermediate forecaster.
Improve forecasting data quality with field tests and dummy variables.
Create ARMAX models, which tend to be far more accurate than multiple linear regressions.
Handicap or create confidence intervals for your forecasts.

Course Chapters
  1. Review: Speed through all the key points of the Fundamentals course. If you pass the test, you are ready to proceed.
  2. ARIMA Results: Exponential smoothing is the benchmark, but ARIMA sometimes outperforms. Learn a basic technique for finding effective ARIMA settings.
  3. ARIMA Details: Learn how chart analysis can be used to find ARIMA settings. See it done live in Stata.
  4. Field Tests: Most forecasters are method-centric: they focus on forecasting models. But what about the data you use for forecasting? Learn how to dramatically increase forecast accuracy by creating causal variables that have a proven causal impact on sales volume.
  5. ARMAX: Learn how to use ARIMA with multiple independent variables (called ARMAX forecasting). Learn how to create dummy variables. Start-to-finish example (using Stata) shows remarkable accuracy. Download source Excel and Stata files.
  6. Economic Variables: Sometimes economic variables seem like attractive forecasting variables. Learn how to determine whether they will help or hinder.
  7. Handicapping: Never submit a forecast without a confidence range. Learn how to incorporate corporate risk and strategy considerations to create effective handicaps.
  8. Pitfalls: Sometimes it really helps to have an expert tell you what to avoid. So we do. 

Details
Each chapter includes:
  • A pdf copy of the material.
  • Quizzes to help you master the lecture.
  • A glossary of terms used in the lecture.
  • Notes, or the instructor's script.
The course includes:
  • 9 Excel file downloads, including the actual data, charts and formulas used in the lecture.
  • 6 exercises to help you apply the material to your own real-world situation.
We are confident that mastery of the concepts provided in this course will significantly increase your forecast accuracy. The result: fewer stock-outs, higher sales, and lower inventory costs.

We suspect you can't find a more succinct yet effective way to learn best-in-class intermediate sales forecasting.

Video Snipits

Illustrative video clips from our online Fundamentals course are provided below, starting with Chapter 2.
The start of Chapter 3
A brief look at Chapter 4
A short clip from Chapter 5